Latest trade
Aug 26, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 23, 2:00 AM UTC.
Analytics
syntheticprobabilitycapital has made $113.37 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 38 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-09-01 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Aug 26, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 23, 2:00 AM UTC.
$10 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 35 markets; 72.0% were buys. They run from Aug 19, 2026 UTC to Aug 26, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | Yes | 125 | $0.160 | $11.88 | -$8.13 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 26?Yes | sell | 16.38 | $0.996 | $16.31 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
 |
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-09-01 06:04 UTC
Polymarket public position response
1 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-23 02:00 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-23 02:00 UTC
polymarket positions
39 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-09-01 06:04 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $347.9 and losing ones cost $27.3 across 38 settled positions. 76.3% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $70.34 on “Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?” (Yes); the largest loss, $10.13 on “Will James Fishback win 15–20% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?” (Yes).
Its most recent trade on record was on 26 Aug 2026. It has traded 66 markets. Its open positions are worth $11.88 across 1 market.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| sell |
| 24.92 |
| $0.980 |
| $24.42 |
| Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
 Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.200 | $20 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
 Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 26?Yes | buy | 39.9 | $0.125 | $5 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 26?Yes | buy | 24.93 | $0.201 | $5 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 26?Yes | buy | 37.86 | $0.132 | $5 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 26?Yes | buy | 16.38 | $0.305 | $5 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 26?Yes | sell | 16.66 | $0.001 | $0.02 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
 Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 26?Yes | buy | 77.5 | $0.065 | $5 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
 Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 20–25%?Yes | sell | 41.12 | $0.970 | $39.89 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
 Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No | buy | 37.31 | $0.105 | $3.91 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
 Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes | buy | 100.54 | $0.298 | $30 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No | buy | 92.88 | $0.323 | $30 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
 Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 25?Yes | buy | 49.67 | $0.020 | $1 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 25?No | sell | 37.35 | $0.960 | $35.87 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 25?Yes | sell | 30.49 | $0.050 | $1.52 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 25?Yes | buy | 30.51 | $0.033 | $1 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on August 25?Yes | buy | 201.6 | $0.005 | $1 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 25?No | buy | 37.36 | $0.803 | $30 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
 Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 26?Yes | sell | 14.28 | $0.020 | $0.29 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
 Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?Yes | buy | 20.12 | $0.497 | $10 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in August?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.700 | $10 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes | sell | 166.66 | $0.350 | $58.33 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 26?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.070 | $1 | Aug 24, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 26?Yes | buy | 16.67 | $0.060 | $1 | Aug 24, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 26?Yes | buy | 25 | $0.040 | $1 | Aug 24, 2026 UTC |
 Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 26?Yes | buy | 250.87 | $0.004 | $1 | Aug 24, 2026 UTC |
 Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on August 25?Yes | buy | 7.14 | $0.140 | $1 | Aug 24, 2026 UTC |
 Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 25?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.050 | $1 | Aug 24, 2026 UTC |
 Will the lowest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on August 25?Yes | buy | 19.84 | $0.050 | $1 | Aug 24, 2026 UTC |
 Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 25?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.120 | $1 | Aug 24, 2026 UTC |
 Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on August 25?Yes | buy | 13.41 | $0.075 | $1 | Aug 24, 2026 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?Yes | sell | 18.27 | $0.591 | $10.8 | Aug 24, 2026 UTC |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?Yes | sell | 11.97 | $0.999 | $11.96 | Aug 23, 2026 UTC |
 Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes | sell | 16.33 | $0.623 | $10.17 | Aug 22, 2026 UTC |
| Will "Earthquake" or "Quake" be in the headlines this week?Yes | buy | 37.86 | $0.528 | $20 | Aug 22, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.200 | $20 | Aug 22, 2026 UTC |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No | buy | 126.58 | $0.316 | $40 | Aug 22, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Venezuela" during his rally with Darline Graham?No | buy | 71.43 | $0.140 | $10 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Yes | buy | 125 | $0.160 | $20 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?No | sell | 90 | $0.999 | $89.91 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ETUp | buy | 11.36 | $0.440 | $5 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
 Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 33.41 | $0.898 | $30 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?Yes | buy | 18.27 | $0.547 | $10 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes | buy | 16.34 | $0.612 | $10 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August?Yes | buy | 28.61 | $0.699 | $20 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during his rally with Darline Graham?No | buy | 17.86 | $0.560 | $10 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes | buy | 166.67 | $0.180 | $30 | Aug 19, 2026 UTC |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?Yes | buy | 11.98 | $0.835 | $10 | Aug 19, 2026 UTC |
| Will James Fishback win 15–20% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?Yes | sell | 231.6 | $0.001 | $0.23 | Aug 19, 2026 UTC |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 4 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.