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Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 37.5 | $0.320 | $5.81 | -$6.19 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?No | buy | 183.93 | $0.544 | $100.06 | Apr 9, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 37.5 |
| $0.320 |
| $12 |
| Apr 9, 2026 |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes | buy | 112.05 | $0.580 | $64.99 | Apr 1, 2026 |
 US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Yes | buy | 4.55 | $0.440 | $2 | Nov 14, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Yes | buy | 10.94 | $0.630 | $6.89 | Nov 3, 2025 |
 Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?No | buy | 15.15 | $0.660 | $10 | Oct 12, 2025 |
 Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?No | buy | 9.84 | $0.610 | $6 | Oct 12, 2025 |
| Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?No | buy | 8.74 | $0.620 | $5.42 | Oct 12, 2025 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?No | buy | 61.19 | $0.514 | $31.42 | Mar 19, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Yes | sell | 64.12 | $0.490 | $31.42 | Mar 19, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Yes | buy | 64.12 | $0.500 | $32.06 | Mar 19, 2025 |
 FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election?Yes | sell | 32.95 | $0.002 | $0.07 | Mar 9, 2025 |
 Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 4.76 | $0.210 | $1 | Feb 22, 2025 |
| FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election?Yes | buy | 16.49 | $0.364 | $6 | Feb 22, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 24.1 | $0.083 | $2 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.200 | $4 | Feb 20, 2025 |
 Will CDU/CSU win more seats than SPD and Greens?No | buy | 22.73 | $0.220 | $5 | Feb 20, 2025 |
 Will any country leave NATO in 2025?Yes | buy | 53.85 | $0.130 | $7 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 13.04 | $0.230 | $3 | Feb 17, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Yes | buy | 31.88 | $0.690 | $22 | Feb 15, 2025 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before March?Yes | buy | 11.76 | $0.170 | $2 | Feb 15, 2025 |
 Will the CDU/CSU win between 30% and 32% of the vote in the German election?No | buy | 10.22 | $0.587 | $6 | Feb 15, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before March?Yes | buy | 41.88 | $0.239 | $10 | Feb 14, 2025 |
 Will the CDU/CSU win by 4-6%?Yes | buy | 6.67 | $0.450 | $3 | Feb 14, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 10.1 | $0.396 | $4 | Feb 14, 2025 |
| FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election?Yes | buy | 16.47 | $0.300 | $4.94 | Feb 13, 2025 |
| Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?Yes | buy | 54.62 | $0.146 | $8 | Feb 13, 2025 |
 BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?Yes | buy | 18.42 | $0.380 | $7 | Feb 13, 2025 |