Latest trade
Oct 8, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 21, 12:34 AM UTC.
Analytics
Optimistic4 has made $81.15 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 50 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-09-27 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Oct 8, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 21, 12:34 AM UTC.
$89.99 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 50 markets; 100.0% were buys. They run from Nov 21, 2025 UTC to Oct 8, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 10.41 | $0.999 | $10.4 | +$0.01 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?No | buy | 10.41 | $0.999 | $10.4 | 12d ago |
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-09-27 03:17 UTC
Polymarket public position response
2 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-21 00:34 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-21 00:34 UTC
polymarket positions
52 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-09-27 03:17 UTC
Last checked just now.
Winning positions brought in $107.06 and losing ones cost $14.98 across the latest 50 settled positions. 86% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $35 on “Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?” (Yes); the largest loss, $5.1 on “Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21?” (Yes).
Its most recent trade on record was on 8 Oct 2026. It has traded 109 markets. Its open positions are worth $13.73 across 2 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| No |
| 18 |
| $0.310 |
| $3.33 |
| -$2.25 |
| buy |
| 18 |
| $0.310 |
| $5.58 |
| 12d ago |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?No | buy | 12.95 | $0.996 | $12.9 | 24d ago |
 UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)Raul Rosas Jr. | buy | 3 | $0.590 | $1.77 | 24d ago |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?No | buy | 14.71 | $0.999 | $14.7 | Jul 30, 2026 UTC |
 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6?No | buy | 90.09 | $0.999 | $90 | Jun 6, 2026 UTC |
 Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 27?No | buy | 90.09 | $0.999 | $90 | May 26, 2026 UTC |
 Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No | buy | 17.02 | $0.999 | $17 | May 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21?No | buy | 73.07 | $0.999 | $73 | May 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15?Yes | buy | 90.09 | $0.999 | $90 | May 15, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11?Yes | buy | 85.09 | $0.999 | $85 | May 11, 2026 UTC |
 Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 11?Yes | buy | 1.1 | $0.999 | $1.1 | May 11, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 11?Yes | buy | 1.2 | $0.999 | $1.2 | May 11, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 7?No | buy | 90.09 | $0.999 | $90 | May 6, 2026 UTC |
 Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?No | buy | 90.09 | $0.999 | $90 | May 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 26?No | buy | 90.08 | $0.999 | $89.99 | Apr 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 20?No | buy | 90.08 | $0.999 | $89.99 | Apr 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 16?Yes | buy | 89.08 | $0.999 | $88.99 | Apr 16, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 13?Yes | buy | 89.08 | $0.999 | $88.99 | Apr 12, 2026 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?No | buy | 89.08 | $0.999 | $88.99 | Apr 7, 2026 UTC |
 Netanyahu out by March 31?No | buy | 89.09 | $0.999 | $89 | Apr 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 29?No | buy | 89.09 | $0.999 | $89 | Mar 28, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 25?No | buy | 89.09 | $0.999 | $89 | Mar 24, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 21?Yes | buy | 89.18 | $0.998 | $89 | Mar 21, 2026 UTC |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?No | buy | 89.18 | $0.998 | $89 | Mar 18, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 16?No | buy | 89.09 | $0.999 | $89 | Mar 15, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 13?No | buy | 88.09 | $0.999 | $88 | Mar 12, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 12?No | buy | 864.45 | $0.003 | $2.9 | Mar 12, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 9?No | buy | 91.09 | $0.999 | $91 | Mar 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 9?Yes | buy | 1.02K | $0.003 | $3.06 | Mar 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6?Yes | buy | 94.09 | $0.999 | $94 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
 Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?Yes | buy | 94.09 | $0.999 | $94 | Mar 2, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 2?Yes | buy | 333.33 | $0.003 | $1 | Mar 2, 2026 UTC |
 Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?No | buy | 95.1 | $0.999 | $95 | Feb 26, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 3?No | buy | 95.38 | $0.996 | $95 | Feb 3, 2026 UTC |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?No | buy | 95.1 | $0.999 | $95 | Jan 31, 2026 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?No | buy | 94.09 | $0.999 | $94 | Jan 29, 2026 UTC |
 Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?No | buy | 94.09 | $0.999 | $94 | Jan 22, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 19?Yes | buy | 94.09 | $0.999 | $94 | Jan 18, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 12?Yes | buy | 94.09 | $0.999 | $94 | Jan 11, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 6?Yes | buy | 94.09 | $0.999 | $94 | Jan 6, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 4?No | buy | 94.09 | $0.999 | $94 | Jan 3, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 30?Yes | buy | 94.09 | $0.999 | $94 | Dec 29, 2025 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 23?No | buy | 94.09 | $0.999 | $94 | Dec 23, 2025 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?No | buy | 94.3 | $0.999 | $94.21 | Dec 15, 2025 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 15?No | buy | 650 | $0.002 | $1.3 | Dec 15, 2025 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?No | buy | 95.51 | $0.998 | $95.32 | Dec 8, 2025 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?No | buy | 95.33 | $0.999 | $95.23 | Dec 1, 2025 UTC |
 Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 27?No | buy | 95.23 | $0.999 | $95.13 | Nov 26, 2025 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on November 21?No | buy | 95.13 | $0.999 | $95.03 | Nov 21, 2025 UTC |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 4 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.