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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No | sell | 78.28 | $0.770 | $60.28 | Sep 6, 2025 |
|
| buy |
| 18.28 |
| $0.570 |
| $10.42 |
| Aug 9, 2025 |
 Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?No | buy | 29.85 | $0.670 | $20 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?Yes | sell | 25.09 | $0.330 | $8.28 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No | buy | 28.85 | $0.660 | $19.04 | Jul 27, 2025 |
 Will Russia capture Yunakivka before August?No | sell | 22.14 | $0.860 | $19.04 | Jul 27, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?Yes | buy | 25.09 | $0.320 | $8.03 | Jul 27, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?No | sell | 11.81 | $0.680 | $8.03 | Jul 27, 2025 |
 Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?No | buy | 21.4 | $0.480 | $10.27 | Jul 21, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?No | sell | 11.8 | $0.870 | $10.27 | Jul 21, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?No | buy | 8.31 | $0.480 | $3.99 | Jul 21, 2025 |
 Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?No | sell | 4.2 | $0.950 | $3.99 | Jul 21, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?No | buy | 2.48 | $0.480 | $1.19 | Jul 21, 2025 |
 Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025?Yes | sell | 14.93 | $0.080 | $1.19 | Jul 21, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Yunakivka before August?No | buy | 44.28 | $0.320 | $14.17 | Jul 19, 2025 |
 Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?Yes | sell | 14.74 | $0.961 | $14.17 | Jul 19, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No | buy | 31.16 | $0.750 | $23.37 | Jul 16, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No | sell | 24.6 | $0.950 | $23.37 | Jul 16, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?No | buy | 4.2 | $0.950 | $3.99 | Jul 5, 2025 |
 Will a dozen eggs be below $3.50 in June?Yes | buy | 52.36 | $0.110 | $5.76 | Jul 5, 2025 |
| Will a dozen eggs be between $3.5-3.75 in June?Yes | sell | 23.8 | $0.200 | $4.76 | Jul 5, 2025 |
| Will a dozen eggs be between $3.5-3.75 in June?Yes | buy | 23.81 | $0.210 | $5 | Jul 5, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?No | buy | 17.44 | $0.890 | $15.52 | Jul 5, 2025 |
| Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?Yes | buy | 11.1 | $0.900 | $9.99 | Jun 18, 2025 |
 Will Russia capture Yablunivka before July?No | buy | 16.68 | $0.760 | $12.68 | Jun 18, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?No | sell | 26.68 | $0.850 | $22.68 | Jun 18, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Yablunivka before July?No | buy | 8.82 | $0.680 | $6 | Jun 17, 2025 |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025?Yes | sell | 50 | $0.120 | $6 | Jun 17, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No | buy | 12.96 | $0.832 | $10.79 | Jun 12, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?No | buy | 6.17 | $0.810 | $5 | Jun 12, 2025 |
 Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff before July?No | sell | 0.81 | $0.974 | $0.79 | Jun 12, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No | buy | 6.25 | $0.800 | $5 | Jun 7, 2025 |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025?Yes | buy | 64.93 | $0.150 | $9.74 | Jun 7, 2025 |
 Will Trump create External Revenue Service before July?No | sell | 5.79 | $0.870 | $5.04 | Jun 1, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30?No | sell | 5.08 | $0.940 | $4.78 | Jun 1, 2025 |
| Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?Yes | sell | 3.64 | $0.680 | $2.48 | May 29, 2025 |
| Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?Yes | sell | 7.28 | $0.680 | $4.95 | May 29, 2025 |
 Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?Yes | sell | 24.99 | $0.500 | $12.5 | May 29, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No | buy | 5.39 | $0.720 | $3.88 | May 25, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?No | buy | 13.7 | $0.730 | $10 | May 23, 2025 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: MayYes | sell | 4.54 | $0.950 | $4.31 | May 23, 2025 |
 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?Yes | sell | 29.15 | $0.210 | $6.12 | May 23, 2025 |
 Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by May 31?No | sell | 3.75 | $0.920 | $3.45 | May 23, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30?No | buy | 5.08 | $0.900 | $4.57 | May 17, 2025 |
 Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?No | sell | 14.73 | $0.310 | $4.57 | May 17, 2025 |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?Yes | buy | 29.16 | $0.190 | $5.54 | May 14, 2025 |
| Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff before July?No | sell | 5 | $0.910 | $4.55 | May 14, 2025 |
| Will Trump create External Revenue Service before July?No | buy | 5.79 | $0.780 | $4.52 | May 13, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30?No | sell | 5.87 | $0.940 | $5.52 | May 13, 2025 |
| Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by May 31?No | buy | 3.75 | $0.800 | $3 | May 6, 2025 |