
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 57.5% on 31 Jan 2025. Before it settled, the high was 57.5% on 31 Jan 2025 and the low 0.1% on 30 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 23% on 29 Mar 2025. $577.01K traded over the market's life.
65 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 1, 4:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 152 points, 31 Jan 2025 – 1 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2025 | 57.5% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| dcposch | Yes | 6K |
| Protos | Yes | 3.93K |
| MuchAdo2BRN2B | Yes | 2.82K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures St. Michael's church in Pokrovsk located on Hrushevskoho Vulytsia by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The church will be considered captured if any part of building is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the church, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Church Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovsk+Church+Location.png Pokrovsk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovosk+Location.png Location on Google maps: https://www.google.com/maps/@48.2794472,37.1801207,592m/data=!3m1!1e3 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-pokrovsk-by
| Yes |
| 2.18K |
| MaxTheMax | Yes | 1.76K |
| LudiaMax | Yes | 833.33 |
| 74a1jkg4d | Yes | 705.81 |
| Unwelcome-Astrakhan | Yes | 630.63 |
| Kyosake | No | 542.98 |
| mimimi | Yes | 525 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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