Latest trade
Sep 11, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 21, 2:52 AM UTC.
Analytics
Muddy-Puzzle is down $96.02 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 50 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-09-30 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Sep 11, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 21, 2:52 AM UTC.
$1 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 31 markets; 62.0% were buys. They run from Aug 18, 2026 UTC to Sep 11, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | Yes | 2.9 | $0.690 | $2.26 | +$0.26 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Yes | sell | 2.69 | $0.009 | $0.02 | Sep 11, 2026 UTC |
|
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-09-30 18:04 UTC
Polymarket public position response
6 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-21 02:52 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-21 02:52 UTC
polymarket positions
52 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-09-30 18:04 UTC
Last checked just now.
Winning positions brought in $16.14 and losing ones cost $93.33 across the latest 50 settled positions. 50% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $1.48 on “Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Elimination Round” (Team Spirit); the largest loss, $48.03 on “Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?” (Yes).
Its most recent trade on record was on 11 Sep 2026. It has traded 91 markets. Its open positions are worth $6.25 across 6 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| Yes |
| 3.92 |
| $0.510 |
| $1.43 |
| -$0.57 |
 Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 1.27 | $0.790 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
 Will Democrats win Latino men in the midterms? | Yes | 1.16 | $0.860 | $0.93 | -$0.07 |
 Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1.89 | $0.530 | $0.46 | -$0.54 |
 Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1.33 | $0.750 | $0.08 | -$0.92 |
| sell |
| 9.09 |
| $0.001 |
| $0.01 |
| Sep 11, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Yes | buy | 3.92 | $0.510 | $2 | Sep 10, 2026 UTC |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.33 | $0.750 | $1 | Sep 10, 2026 UTC |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.89 | $0.530 | $1 | Sep 10, 2026 UTC |
 Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?No | sell | 2.17 | $0.952 | $2.07 | Sep 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Yes | buy | 1.27 | $0.790 | $1 | Sep 3, 2026 UTC |
| Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.25 | $0.800 | $1 | Sep 3, 2026 UTC |
 Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.16 | $0.863 | $1 | Sep 3, 2026 UTC |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Yes | buy | 2.9 | $0.690 | $2 | Sep 2, 2026 UTC |
| Will Democrats win Latino men in the midterms?Yes | buy | 1.16 | $0.860 | $1 | Sep 2, 2026 UTC |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?No | buy | 2.17 | $0.460 | $1 | Sep 2, 2026 UTC |
 Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on September 1, 2026?Yes | sell | 2.17 | $0.950 | $2.06 | Sep 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on September 1, 2026?Yes | buy | 2.17 | $0.920 | $2 | Sep 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on September 1, 2026?No | sell | 2.4 | $0.170 | $0.41 | Sep 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on September 1, 2026?No | buy | 2.41 | $0.830 | $2 | Sep 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?Yes | sell | 1.89 | $0.956 | $1.81 | Sep 1, 2026 UTC |
 Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?No | buy | 5 | $0.750 | $3.75 | Aug 31, 2026 UTC |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 3.67 | $0.950 | $3.49 | Aug 31, 2026 UTC |
 Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?Yes | sell | 1.88 | $0.770 | $1.45 | Aug 31, 2026 UTC |
| Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?Yes | buy | 3.6 | $0.278 | $1 | Aug 29, 2026 UTC |
 Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 1.08 | $0.930 | $1 | Aug 28, 2026 UTC |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 1.05 | $0.948 | $1 | Aug 28, 2026 UTC |
| Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?Yes | buy | 1.89 | $0.529 | $1 | Aug 28, 2026 UTC |
 Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 10 and 15 million views on day 1?Yes | sell | 1.58 | $0.720 | $1.14 | Aug 28, 2026 UTC |
| Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 10 and 15 million views on day 1?Yes | buy | 1.59 | $0.630 | $1 | Aug 28, 2026 UTC |
| Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?Yes | sell | 3.07 | $0.101 | $0.31 | Aug 28, 2026 UTC |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.79 | $0.560 | $1 | Aug 27, 2026 UTC |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.89 | $0.530 | $1 | Aug 27, 2026 UTC |
 Counter-Strike: ALKA vs Turma do Pagode - Map 1 WinnerTurma do Pagode | sell | 1.04 | $0.999 | $1.04 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
 Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.85 | $0.540 | $1 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 1.28 | $0.220 | $0.28 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
| Counter-Strike: ALKA vs Turma do Pagode - Map 1 WinnerTurma do Pagode | buy | 1.04 | $0.960 | $1 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
| Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?Yes | sell | 1.27 | $0.890 | $1.13 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
| Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of August 2026?Yes | buy | 6.67 | $0.150 | $1 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
| Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?Yes | buy | 1.27 | $0.790 | $1 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
 LoL: Solary vs Skillcamp Esport - Game 2 WinnerSolary | sell | 1.23 | $0.030 | $0.04 | Aug 20, 2026 UTC |
| LoL: Solary vs Skillcamp Esport - Game 2 WinnerSolary | buy | 1.32 | $0.760 | $1 | Aug 20, 2026 UTC |
| LoL: Solary vs Skillcamp Esport (BO3) - LFL PlayoffsSolary | sell | 1.08 | $0.950 | $1.03 | Aug 20, 2026 UTC |
| LoL: Solary vs Skillcamp Esport (BO3) - LFL PlayoffsSolary | buy | 1.09 | $0.920 | $1 | Aug 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 21?Yes | buy | 1.54 | $0.649 | $1 | Aug 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?Yes | buy | 1.54 | $0.651 | $1 | Aug 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?Yes | buy | 1.54 | $0.649 | $1 | Aug 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes | sell | 3.19 | $0.945 | $3.01 | Aug 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.28 | $0.780 | $1 | Aug 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?Yes | buy | 1.74 | $0.574 | $1 | Aug 20, 2026 UTC |
 Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Yes | sell | 1.17 | $0.920 | $1.08 | Aug 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?Yes | buy | 2.94 | $0.340 | $1 | Aug 18, 2026 UTC |
| Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?Yes | sell | 1.63 | $0.890 | $1.45 | Aug 18, 2026 UTC |
| Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long?No | sell | 1.38 | $0.750 | $1.04 | Aug 18, 2026 UTC |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.