Analytics
Yes is at 11.5%, down 8 points from 19.5% when the market opened on 30 Jan 2026.
The high was 27% on 6 Mar 2026 and the low 7.5% on 18 Jul 2026. A week ago Yes was at 12%; a month ago, 11%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 26% on 21 Jul 2026.
$595.91 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $228.36K since listing. The order book holds $24.3K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $3.54K bought Yes and $12.98K bought No; the largest was a $12.69K sell of No at 63.4¢.
The largest Yes position is BackOfPandaGambler with 5.2K shares; the largest No position is zxdfbdfgngcxv with 5.7K. Ten wallets hold 54.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 73 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 20, 9:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 240 points, 30 Jan 2026 – 20 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | 19.5% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 11.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| zxdfbdfgngcxv | No | 5.73K |
| BackOfPandaGambler | Yes | 5.24K |
| Ideal-Arch | No | 5.2K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/zhang-youxia-sentenced-to-prison-before-2027
| johndoez |
| No |
| 5K |
| fqy2026 | Yes | 3.24K |
| Xtermedntid | No | 2.93K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 2.48K |
| 0xdizz | Yes | 2.03K |
| redsandstone | Yes | 1.98K |
| jiudubishu | Yes | 1.9K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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