Will "Yes" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 3–6%?

Resolved

No, settled Aug 31, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.1K

Resolved

Settled

Aug 31, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 31 Aug 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 35% on 28 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 28 Aug 2026 to 31 Aug 2026, the highest close was 35% on 28 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 31 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 18.5% on 29 Aug 2026. $1.12K traded over the market's life.

12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 28 Aug 2026 – 31 Aug 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
28 Aug 2026	35.0%
31 Aug 2026	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
MagnusHolm123	Yes	600
Indigo Signal 2966	No	422.98
TheOne777	Yes	169.8
ManipulationOfRisk	Yes	63.52

10 of 12 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.