Analytics
Yes is at 1.7%, down 48 points from 50% when the market opened on 26 Sep 2026.
The high was 50% on 26 Sep 2026 and the low 1.3% on 10 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 1.8%. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 12.5% on 27 Sep 2026.
It is one of 15 markets under “What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?”.
$19.86K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $25.7K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 58 trades, $316.27 bought Yes and $6.66K bought No; the largest was a $5K buy of No at 94.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Favorable-Pepper-Brushing with 5.4K shares; the largest No position is Avamax with 12.1K. Ten wallets hold 96.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 13 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 19, 11:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 26 Sep 2026 – 19 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 1.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Avamax | No | 12.11K |
| Favorable-Pepper-Brushing | Yes | 5.35K |
| Violet Kestrel 7A11 | No | 5.32K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of October 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-xauusd-hit-in-october-2026
3 more markets, none above 1.1%.
| Laaaakn | Yes | 4.97K |
| Liquidifier | Yes | 2.55K |
| EgoVolae | Yes | 1.91K |
| FrankG4728 | Yes | 1.22K |
| grasstoucher69 | Yes | 987.28 |
| PippiTrader | No | 500 |
| pennedreadful | Yes | 421.88 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
