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“Will world GDP growth be 3.2% in 2026?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “2026 World GDP Growth”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Jan 15, 2027 UTC. As of Oct 4, 6:24 PM UTC, Yes trades at 1.5¢, a 1.5% implied chance, $25 traded in the last 24 hours, $1.07K resting in the order book, a 1.4% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 232 daily price points from Jan 24, 2026 UTC to Oct 4, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.8% and 49.1%); 44 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 85.0% of the loaded shares; 241 recent public fills from 84 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 232 points · 24 Jan 2026 – 4 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | 22.5% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | 1.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.9K |
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 486.49 |
| Back-Myth-Walnut | Yes |
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2026-world-gdp-growth
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 238.38 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 180 |
| balthazar | Yes | 134.98 |
| AJSV | Yes | 131.99 |
| cigarettes | No | 117.7 |
| HibernatingParasite | Yes | 110 |
| alamedamemola | Yes | 100 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 92.09 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
