Analytics
Resolved No on 19 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 20% on 8 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 8 Oct 2026 to 19 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 20% on 8 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 17 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 7% on 9 Oct 2026. $2.14K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 20, 1:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 8 Oct 2026 – 19 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2026 | 20.0% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 6.28K |
| balthazar | Yes | 853.4 |
| Smoggy-Lambkin | Yes | 673.64 |
| god83743894 | Yes | 382.41 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to how much "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 16 - 18) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/whalefall-opening-weekend-box-office
| mustbethewater | Yes | 357.86 |
| CharlieMorales | Yes | 213.29 |
| sanduspace | Yes | 199.99 |
| Bright Sphinx 1B73 | Yes | 154.77 |
| godblessme2026 | Yes | 105 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 72.59 |
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