Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.4%. Yes opened at 51.5% on 26 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 100 daily closes on record from 26 Nov 2025 to 4 Mar 2026, the highest close was 99.4% on 4 Mar 2026 and the lowest 40.5% on 8 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 71.5% on 3 Jan 2026. $145.74K traded over the market's life.
66 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 5, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 100 points, 26 Nov 2025 – 4 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Nov 2025 | 51.5% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | 99.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 5.14K |
| Misty Falcon 7D5B | No | 300.01 |
| cowcat | No | 291 |
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the third-most votes in the first round of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/3rd-place-in-first-round-of-texas-republican-senate-primary
| No |
| 282.86 |
| FrankyFourFingers | No | 200 |
| 0xRocket666 | No | 165 |
| kalytics | No | 140.86 |
| Tasty-Statistic | No | 125 |
| mustbethewater | No | 116.84 |
| Violet Atlas CCF7 | Yes | 101 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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