Analytics
Yes is at 4.8%, down 38 points from 42.5% when the market opened on 31 Jul 2026.
Across the 84 daily closes on record from 31 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 42.5% on 31 Jul 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 21 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.8%; a month before, 5%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 24.5% on 18 Aug 2026.
M1 Garand ranks fifth of the 6 outcomes in “What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun?”. Winchester Model 1873 leads at 70.5%; Colt Peacemaker is at 13.5%.
$18.12 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $444.68 since listing. The order book holds $782.03, with a 7.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 24 trades, $2.96 bought Yes and $239.94 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 156 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 269.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 4:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 84 points, 31 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 42.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 269.43 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 156.12 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 96.97 |
The Idaho Official State Gun Question is an advisory ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would inform the state legislature as to the voters' choice for a state gun. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Idaho Official State Gun Question in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other”. The named options will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more options are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the options. This market will resolve to the option that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Idaho, including the Idaho Secretary of State (https://sos.idaho.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-idaho-voters-choose-as-their-state-gun-20260729163325833
| Spectrum | No | 53 |
| Winged-Holder | Yes | 35.17 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 21.9 |
| zhyfacai | No | 20 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 19.94 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 12.32 |
| flexer78 | Yes | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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