Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.3%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 17 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 75 daily closes on record from 17 Apr 2026 to 1 Jul 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 69.5% on 21 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 27 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 61 points down, to 8.5% on 22 Apr 2026. $3.79K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 24, 9:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 75 points, 17 Apr 2026 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Apr 2026 | 40.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 3.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sixoneeight | Yes | 365.88 |
| jsbel | Yes | 276.72 |
| Fabulous-Bayou | Yes | 100.06 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Variational officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational (https://x.com/variational_io), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-variational-launch-a-token-in-2025
| ma99 | Yes | 100 |
| akunai | Yes | 100 |
| feifeiliu9 | Yes | 57.22 |
| TerranSupremacy | Yes | 39.99 |
| Neat-Robot | Yes | 30 |
| PPMT | Yes | 29.92 |
| menthe2 | Yes | 25 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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