Will Vanke default on debt by December 31?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$5.9K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 61% on 18 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 18 Dec 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 61% on 18 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 30% on 19 Dec 2025. $5.92K traded over the market's life.

26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 18 Dec 2025 – 1 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
18 Dec 2025	61.0%
1 Jan 2026	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	395
NAA	Yes	346.34
Emerald Pioneer D14A	Yes	286
wylzub	Yes	189.94

10 of 26 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The Chinese real estate developer Vanke Co., Ltd. failed to repay approximately 2 billion yuan (around $283.56 million) of onshore bonds due on December 15, 2025. After bondholders rejected its request to delay payment, the company entered a five-business-day grace period, during which it must make the payment or reach a new agreement with lenders. If neither occurs by the end of the grace period, Vanke will be considered in default on this debt. Read more here: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vanke-fails-win-approval-delay-284-million-bond-payment-2025-12-15/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vanke defaults on this debt by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The primary resolution source will be official disclosures from Vanke Co., Ltd.; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.