Will Vanilla Ninja win Eesti Laul 2026?

Resolved

Yes, settled Feb 15, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$29.9K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Feb 15, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 15 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 37.5% on 23 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 55 daily closes on record from 23 Dec 2025 to 15 Feb 2026, the highest close was 100% on 15 Feb 2026 and the lowest 14% on 25 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 53 points up, to 100% on 15 Feb 2026. $29.87K traded over the market's life.

30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 16, 12:23 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 55 points, 23 Dec 2025 – 15 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
23 Dec 2025	37.5%
15 Feb 2026	100.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	3.65K
irmants	No	659.56
Devoted-Route	No	257.82

10 of 30 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Eesti Laul, the Estonian national selection for the Eurovision Song Contest, is scheduled for the final on February 14, 2026. This market resolves to the artist who wins Eesti Laul 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed artist to win Eesti Laul 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to official rules of the contest. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Estonian broadcaster ERR, including live footage of the competition, however a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., https://eurovisionworld.com/) will suffice.