Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 22 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 22 Nov 2025 to 9 Dec 2025, the highest close was 27.5% on 22 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 9 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 0.5% on 4 Dec 2025. $64K traded over the market's life.
51 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 10, 12:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 22 Nov 2025 – 9 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Nov 2025 | 27.5% |
| 9 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 25.41K |
| Bink_7 | Yes | 965.74 |
| Wtr | Yes | 524.81 |
| cowcat | Yes | 497.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Tennessee; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tn-07-special-election-margin-of-victory
| mumbaiboy | Yes | 400 |
| dreamingToBeAGuru | Yes | 200 |
| Archonight | Yes | 142.86 |
| SPX6900enjoyer | Yes | 100 |
| wedwwdsas | Yes | 100 |
| shine | Yes | 59.99 |
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