Analytics
Yes is at 50.2%, up 20 points from 30% when the market opened on 2 Sep 2026.
The high was 72% on 18 Sep 2026 and the low 30% on 2 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 50.3%; a month ago, 53%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points up, to 64% on 3 Sep 2026.
$33.05 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $4.32, with a 98.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is vikashnet with 11 shares; the largest No position is TENETENET with 10.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 77 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 16, 8:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 46 points, 2 Sep 2026 – 16 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Sep 2026 | 30.0% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 50.2% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| vikashnet | Yes | 10.61 |
| TENETENET | No | 10 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 0.6 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve releases a new hero for Dota 2 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, a "new hero" is defined as a playable hero not previously available in Dota 2 that is fully implemented and accessible to all players in the live game client. An announcement, teaser, or trailer for an upcoming hero does not qualify on its own; the hero must be playable. A hero available only in a test, beta, or experimental client does not qualify. Reworks, remakes, or renamed versions of existing heroes do not qualify. For the purpose of this market, "Valve" refers to Valve Corporation, the developer and publisher of Dota 2. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-valve-release-a-new-dota-2-hero-by-december-31
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