Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 Jul 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 68%. Yes opened at 50% on 13 Jun 2023. Before it settled, across the 30 daily closes on record from 13 Jun 2023 to 12 Jul 2023, the highest close was 83.5% on 14 Jun 2023 and the lowest 35.5% on 15 Jun 2023. Its largest one-day move was 48 points down, to 35.5% on 15 Jun 2023. $1.95K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 13, 12:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 13 Jun 2023 – 12 Jul 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Jun 2023 | 50.0% |
| 12 Jul 2023 | 68.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| HarvardInsider | No | 811 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from May to June 2023. Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 0.1 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) from May to June 2023 and “No“ otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS June 2023 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 12, 2023, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. ---- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the avg change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.2%, the market will resolve to “Yes”, if it is 0.1%, this market will resolve to “No”).
Resolution source: https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-us-inflation-be-from-may-to-june-2023
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