Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 75.8%. Yes opened at 24% on 24 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 107 daily closes on record from 24 Dec 2025 to 30 Apr 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 30% on 7 Jan 2026 and the lowest 3% on 26 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 30% on 7 Jan 2026. $42.62K traded over the market's life.
62 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 1:26 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 107 points, 24 Dec 2025 – 30 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Dec 2025 | 24.0% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | 24.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 7.42K |
| yangguang0511 | Yes | 2K |
| 2026richlv | Yes | 500 |
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q1-2026
| Yes |
| 415.44 |
| a5DYXQMGEE | Yes | 247.47 |
| tomsir | Yes | 236.63 |
| Second-Hand-Presume | Yes | 215 |
| tonifili | Yes | 129.01 |
| lufefaundez | Yes | 103.18 |
| subprimeloan | Yes | 100.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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