Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 90.8%. Yes opened at 13% on 16 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 185 daily closes on record from 16 Aug 2025 to 17 Feb 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 28.1% on 14 Jan 2026 and the lowest 2.6% on 19 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 15.8% on 15 Jan 2026. $131.2K traded over the market's life.
99 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 21, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 185 points, 16 Aug 2025 – 17 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2025 | 13.0% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | 9.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 32.57K |
| smartttt | Yes | 18.16K |
| Neon Harbor B703 | Yes | 3.63K |
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2025, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2024 to the annual level in 2025. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gdp-growth-in-2025
| Cobalt Harbor 98E6 | Yes | 1.04K |
| Coral Kestrel 54F7 | Yes | 1.04K |
| eowimxdc | Yes | 674.25 |
| Wiendaker | Yes | 664.58 |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 583.62 |
| lixiuning | Yes | 550 |
| MRDISS | Yes | 526.2 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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