Will U.S. GDP growth be less than -2% in Q1 2025?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 30, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$162.0K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 30, 2025 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 30 Apr 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 88.9%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 5 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 57 daily closes on record from 5 Mar 2025 to 30 Apr 2025, the highest close was 25.5% on 5 Mar 2025 and the lowest 1.3% on 25 Mar 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 6.5% on 7 Mar 2025. $162.01K traded over the market's life.

27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 1, 4:20 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 57 points, 5 Mar 2025 – 30 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–40%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
5 Mar 2025	25.5%
30 Apr 2025	11.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	36.27K
PhantomHawk	Yes	1.27K
wobblyasp	Yes	1.17K

10 of 27 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2025 scheduled for April 30, 2025. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.