Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 15 Dec 2023. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 15 Dec 2023 to 8 Jan 2024, the highest close was 60% on 2 Jan 2024 and the lowest 0.2% on 6 Jan 2024. Its largest one-day move was 32 points up, to 60% on 2 Jan 2024. $114.09K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 8, 7:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 15 Dec 2023 – 8 Jan 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Dec 2023 | 16.5% |
| 8 Jan 2024 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| forexdude | Yes | 16.98 |
| ProofofVitalik | No | 12.2 |
| Hanah518 | No | 6.1 |
| Garlicstorm | Yes | 0.08 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory between December 14, 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military attack" is any use of force executed by the US on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a Houthi weapons depot on Yemeni soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count. The US striking an unmanned aerial vehicle or projectile over Yemeni territory in a defensive capacity will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-us-attack-yemen-in-2023
| F66E | Yes | 0.07 |
| 0x482 | Yes | 0.02 |
| SCD-807 | No | 0.01 |
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