Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 5 Dec 2023. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 5 Dec 2023 to 1 Jan 2024, the highest close was 48.4% on 31 Dec 2023 and the lowest 1% on 1 Jan 2024. Its largest one-day move was 47 points down, to 1% on 1 Jan 2024. $8.06K traded over the market's life.
Polymarket record as of Jan 1, 7:05 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 5 Dec 2023 – 1 Jan 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Dec 2023 | 5.5% |
| 1 Jan 2024 | 1.0% |
Polymarket lists no holders for this market.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between December 3 and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military attack" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-us-attack-iran-in-2023
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