Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Dec 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 13.5% on 31 Oct 2023. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 31 Oct 2023 to 1 Dec 2023, the highest close was 13.5% on 31 Oct 2023 and the lowest 1% on 23 Nov 2023. Its largest one-day move was 5 points down, to 8.5% on 1 Nov 2023. $15.24K traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 1, 9:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 31 Oct 2023 – 1 Dec 2023, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2023 | 13.5% |
| 1 Dec 2023 | 1.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| fimalacci | Yes | 615.89 |
| Rapid Pioneer 757C | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory by November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military attack" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-us-attack-iran-by-nov-30
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