Will US annual inflation be 2.6% or less in December?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 15, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$207.7K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 15, 2025 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 15 Jan 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 12% on 12 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 12 Dec 2024 to 15 Jan 2025, the highest close was 12% on 12 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.7% on 15 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6.9 points up, to 8.5% on 23 Dec 2024. $207.72K traded over the market's life.

27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 4:11 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 12 Dec 2024 – 15 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–15%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Dec 2024	12.0%
15 Jan 2025	0.7%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	24.64K
pinkponyDD	Yes	5.84K
TimeTraveler	Yes	2.84K
KingLee	Yes	2K

10 of 27 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market about inflation over the 12 month period ending December 2024 before seasonal adjustment as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by 2.6 percent or less over the 12 month period ending December 2024 and “No“ otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS December 2024 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on January 15, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. ---- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.