Analytics
Yes is at 15.5%, down 41 points from 56.5% when the market opened on 28 May 2026.
Across the 152 daily closes on record from 28 May 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 56.5% on 28 May 2026 and the lowest 15.5% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 17%; a month before, 38.5%. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 28% on 29 May 2026.
$569.04 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $38.85K since listing. The order book holds $3.3K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $3.26K bought Yes and $10.61K bought No.
The largest Yes position is V4grant with 562 shares; the largest No position is NiceDuckBro with 2.5K. Ten wallets hold 69.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 152 points, 28 May 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 May 2026 | 56.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 15.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| NiceDuckBro | No | 2.51K |
| -BOB- | No | 1.3K |
| V4grant | Yes | 561.99 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.78301797308696° N, 36.386232040928824° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-re-enter-uspenivka-by-march-31
| GaTTTo |
| Yes |
| 495.61 |
| rontro28 | Yes | 490.85 |
| leCommissaire | Yes | 406.62 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 349.74 |
| Dafri220286 | No | 334.12 |
| eratoxtenex | Yes | 300 |
| KrdRL | No | 291.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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