Analytics
Yes is at 30%, down 22 points from 51.5% when the market opened on 4 Oct 2026.
Across the 16 daily closes on record from 4 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51.5% on 4 Oct 2026 and the lowest 27.5% on 16 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 27.5%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 33.5% on 5 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by...?”.
$10.07K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.36K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 111 trades, $1.15K bought Yes and $2.79K bought No.
The largest Yes position is JJJAY with 560 shares; the largest No position is NiceDuckBro with 1.8K. Ten wallets hold 85.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 70 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 9:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 4 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2026 | 51.5% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 30.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| NiceDuckBro | No | 1.82K |
| controls | No | 1.26K |
| JJJAY | Yes | 560.45 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Terny, Donetsk Oblast, (49.097467° N, 37.965439° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (Story Map: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375; Web Map: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=9f04944a2fe84edab9da31750c2b15eb) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW Web Map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-re-enter-terny-by
| rexcom |
| Yes |
| 533.99 |
| GaioMario | Yes | 347.96 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 318.27 |
| rando12345 | Yes | 300 |
| Rybkaoi | Yes | 292.12 |
| David6 | Yes | 251.75 |
| Mustafalafel | Yes | 242.08 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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