Will UKMTO publish 12-15 notices between October 19-October 25?

geopoliticsResolved

No, settled Oct 26, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$572

Resolved

Settled

Oct 26, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 26 Oct 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 96%. Yes opened at 22% on 17 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 17 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 22% on 17 Oct 2026 and the lowest 4% on 24 Oct 2026. $572.49 traded over the market's life.

16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 27, 12:18 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 17 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	561.03
S888	Yes	65.14
.Menthe	Yes	50
zeitfi-vault-v2	Yes	34.49

10 of 16 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page. All notice types will count, including warnings, advisories, suspicious activity notices, and attack reports, including time-late reports of incidents that occurred before October 19, 2026 (UTC). Each notice will be counted once. Updates to, corrections of, or reissues of a previously published notice will not count as separate notices, including any subsequent notice that updates or provides additional information on an incident already reported by UKMTO. Only notices published by UKMTO will count. Maritime incidents that are not the subject of a UKMTO notice published within the specified period will not count, regardless of whether they occurred or are reported by other sources. This market will resolve as soon as all notices for the specified period have been published. Notices published after October 25, 2026 (UTC) will not be considered, even if they relate to incidents within the specified period. The resolution source for this market will be UKMTO, specifically the Recent Incidents page at https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents. If that page is unavailable, notices published through UKMTO's official channels may be used.