Analytics
Yes is at 40.6%, up 6.1 points from 34.5% when the market opened on 14 Aug 2026.
Across the 74 daily closes on record from 14 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 64.9% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 3.7% on 31 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 64.9%; a month before, 28.4%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 7% on 16 Aug 2026.
0.6–0.7% is the favourite of the 7 outcomes in “UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?”, ahead of 0.8–0.9% at 37.5%.
$651.46 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.64K since listing. The order book holds $967.84, with a 6.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 228 trades, $1.09K bought Yes and $1.26K bought No.
The largest Yes position is SnapElectionAvoider with 1.2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.6K. Ten wallets hold 86.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 13 Nov 2026, 14 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 3:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 74 points, 14 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2026 | 34.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 40.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.58K |
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 1.16K |
| vieuxtemps | Yes | 795.74 |
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/uk-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-qoq-20260813112748100
| FrozenParasite | Yes | 464.45 |
| trx1 | No | 277.83 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 208.21 |
| FishHunter | No | 129 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 105.7 |
| alamedamemola | Yes | 100 |
| fivebooms | No | 96 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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