Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate primary be below 1,000,000 voters?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 21, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Resolved

Settled

Mar 21, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 21 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 27% on 5 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 44 daily closes on record from 5 Feb 2026 to 21 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 44.5% on 7 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 6 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 10% on 19 Feb 2026.

20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 21, 2:48 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 21 Mar 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
5 Feb 2026	27.0%
21 Mar 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.59K
FrankyFourFingers	Yes	299.99
paspor	Yes	184.36

10 of 20 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Democratic Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.