
Resolved No on 2 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 33% on 19 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 19 Jan 2026 to 2 Feb 2026, the highest close was 39% on 20 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 1.5% on 22 Jan 2026. $118.98K traded over the market's life.
158 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 3, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 19 Jan 2026 – 2 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Jan 2026 | 33.0% |
| 2 Feb 2026 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 644 |
| 1000start | Yes | 557.54 |
| Easy-Cutover | Yes | 540.54 |
| AdoG15 | Yes | 423.53 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any new general tariff on imports into the United States from the listed country goes into effect for any amount of time by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have occurred without being further delayed or suspended. A new general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a new policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from the listed country goes into effect. Only new tariffs specifically targeting the listed country or a specific set of countries including the listed country will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S. from any country) will not count toward this market's resolution. An increase in the rate of pre-existing general tariffs on imports into the US from the listed country will count. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-trumps-greenland-tariffs-go-into-effect-for-by-feb-1
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 341 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 341 |
| kamarat | Yes | 300 |
| Plymrkt | Yes | 299.99 |
| Ryoryos | Yes | 299.84 |
| randomWalkingShrimp | Yes | 271.48 |
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