Analytics
Resolved Yes on 24 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 96%. Yes opened at 84.5% on 15 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 15 Apr 2025 to 24 Apr 2025, the highest close was 96% on 24 Apr 2025 and the lowest 84.5% on 15 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points up, to 96% on 24 Apr 2025. $12.37K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 26, 12:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 15 Apr 2025 – 24 Apr 2025, chart shows 80%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Apr 2025 | 84.5% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | 96.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Porx | Yes | 0.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 14 and July 31 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for July 31 is not published by August 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-before-august
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
