Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2025?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 2, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.8K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 2, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 2 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 14% on 13 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 13 Dec 2025 to 2 Jan 2026, the highest close was 58% on 22 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 46 points down, to 4% on 28 Dec 2025. $1.8K traded over the market's life.

4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 3, 12:27 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 13 Dec 2025 – 2 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
13 Dec 2025	14.0%
2 Jan 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
TENETENET	Yes	500
triklozoid	Yes	14.99
polyphony - 24666	Yes	5
AlterKanye	No	0.03

4 of 4 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating, according to Silver Bulletin, is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between December 11 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.