Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 64.5% on 15 Apr 2025. Before it settled, the high was 81% on 3 May 2025 and the low 0.3% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 62.5% on 17 Jul 2025. $1.2M traded over the market's life.
212 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 263 points · 15 Apr 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Apr 2025 | 64.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| NJF4Pres2036 | Yes | 22.64K |
| jaja5050 | Yes | 13.01K |
| qiaolu | Yes | 10.6K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 14 and December 31 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-2025
| zizuoshi | Yes | 7.99K |
| TheRedChip | Yes | 7.9K |
| ciro2 | Yes | 7.8K |
| Genuine-Ecliptic | Yes | 3.77K |
| LR1 | Yes | 3.2K |
| BFBB | Yes | 2.95K |
| lissartter | Yes | 2.88K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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