Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.5% in April?

Resolved

No, settled May 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$11.5K

Resolved

Settled

May 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 May 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 43% on 9 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 1 May 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 46.5% on 23 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.8% on 30 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 37 points up, to 46.5% on 23 Apr 2026. $11.5K traded over the market's life.

18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 2, 1:24 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 1 May 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
9 Apr 2026	43.0%
1 May 2026	0.8%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
LLAFYKS	Yes	254.03
Noxious-Real	Yes	42.08
mouse0325	Yes	34
jyfghwf	Yes	32.2

10 of 18 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 8 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for April 30 is not published by May 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.