Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on April 4?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 5, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$32.3K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 5, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 5 Apr 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 5.9% on 29 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 29 Mar 2025 to 5 Apr 2025, the highest close was 22.9% on 3 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 5 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 22.9% on 3 Apr 2025. $32.32K traded over the market's life.

11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 6, 10:30 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 29 Mar 2025 – 5 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
29 Mar 2025	5.9%
5 Apr 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	4.97K
wasif1	Yes	3K
Amber Vector A2C3	Yes	730
Violet Sphinx 93B3	Yes	620

10 of 11 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 4, 2025. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.