Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on October 2, 2026?

politicsResolved

No, settled Oct 3, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.3K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 3, 2026 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved No on 3 Oct 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 84%. Yes opened at 27% on 30 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 30 Sep 2026 to 3 Oct 2026, the highest close was 28% on 1 Oct 2026 and the lowest 16% on 3 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 17% on 2 Oct 2026. $1.27K traded over the market's life.

12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 4, 12:13 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 30 Sep 2026 – 3 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–35%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	413.24
Prize-Jar	Yes	185.48
balthazar	Yes	59.98

10 of 12 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on October 2, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.