Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on March 7?

Resolved

Yes, settled Mar 11, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$158.2K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Mar 11, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 11 Mar 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.8%. Yes opened at 45% on 1 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 1 Mar 2025 to 11 Mar 2025, the highest close was 99.8% on 10 Mar 2025 and the lowest 26% on 2 Mar 2025. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 95.4% on 7 Mar 2025. $158.17K traded over the market's life.

8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 12, 9:34 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 1 Mar 2025 – 11 Mar 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
1 Mar 2025	45.0%
11 Mar 2025	99.8%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	4.89K
Quiet Atlas FB8B	No	1.7
Golden Horizon 1BEC	No	1.59
akl-4ibm	No	0.04

8 of 8 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to FiveThirtyEight's approval rating for Donald Trump on March 7, 2025. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.