Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 49.5% or higher on February 28?

politicsResolved

No, settled Mar 3, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$12.1K

Resolved

Settled

Mar 3, 2025 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved No on 3 Mar 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 4% on 22 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 22 Feb 2025 to 3 Mar 2025, the highest close was 4.5% on 23 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Mar 2025. $12.08K traded over the market's life.

5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 4, 1:11 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 22 Feb 2025 – 3 Mar 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
22 Feb 2025	4.0%
3 Mar 2025	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	3.11K
laurenmessner	Yes	1.35K
petrovic1914	No	0.03
Sonthey	No	0.02

5 of 5 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to FiveThirtyEight's approval rating for Donald Trump on February 28, 2025. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.