Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 4% on 10 Oct 2024. Before it settled, the high was 4% on 10 Oct 2024 and the low 0.1% on 7 Nov 2024. $21.07K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 30, 7:46 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 52 points · 10 Oct 2024 – 30 Nov 2024 · axis zoomed to 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2024 | 4.0% |
| 30 Nov 2024 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 7.96K |
| ER03PT | Yes | 1.43K |
| ER04OK | Yes | 285.71 |
| userx7 | Yes | 200 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arkansas has the largest margin of victory between Donald Trump and second place candidate of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump loses this state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, this market will resolve to "No". The District of Columbia will not count. For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes for Donald Trump and for the second place candidate by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes. If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-state-will-trump-win-by-the-largest-margin
| wavese | Yes | 185.18 |
| YoDa | Yes | 152 |
| Vofer | Yes | 50 |
| ExhaustedBoyBilly | No | 0.08 |
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