Analytics
Yes is at 5.5%, down 16 points from 21% when the market opened on 7 Feb 2026.
Across the 240 daily closes on record from 7 Feb 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (25 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 35.5% on 29 Apr 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6%; a month before, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 35.5% on 29 Apr 2026.
$27.8 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.42K since listing. The order book holds $11.59K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 205 trades, $188.09 bought Yes and $1.42K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 177 shares; the largest No position is predictor007 with 138. Ten wallets hold 53.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:14 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 240 points, 7 Feb 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | 21.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 5.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 177.45 |
| predictor007 | No | 137.9 |
| naysayer | No | 106.38 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count. A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count. A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-try-to-acquire-part-of-alberta
| HenrySymoneidis |
| Yes |
| 103.65 |
| Crimson Scout DF5C | No | 95.96 |
| henryswisvip | Yes | 71.43 |
| TheOne777 | No | 71.43 |
| Parachute | No | 57.3 |
| Tenk1994 | No | 52.93 |
| baybug | No | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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