Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.8%. Yes opened at 50% on 8 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 87 daily closes on record from 8 Oct 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 52.5% on 12 Oct 2025 and the lowest 1.2% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 43 points down, to 3.5% on 25 Dec 2025. $7.56K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 19, 3:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 87 points, 8 Oct 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2025 | 50.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 1.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 566 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 200 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 169 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration takes a formal action or makes an official announcement directing the deployment of National Guard troops to the listed city by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions. Qualifying actions include but are not limited to: - A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city. - An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city. - A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized). - An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city. Non-qualifying actions include: - Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement - Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city. - Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location. - A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-cities-will-trump-send-the-national-guard-to-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 153 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 107 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 88 |
| S888 | Yes | 86.97 |
| dichengci | Yes | 59.12 |
| qixindu | Yes | 55 |
| Kanp | Yes | 49.42 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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