Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.7%. Yes opened at 23% on 27 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 27 Aug 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 69.5% on 8 Sep 2025 and the lowest 1.5% on 28 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 47.5% on 9 Sep 2025. $50.36K traded over the market's life.
41 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 Aug 2025 – 1 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2025 | 23.0% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 4.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ChironCrossing | Yes | 742.54 |
| S888 | Yes | 500 |
| Theturtle | Yes | 500 |
| trousaz | Yes | 208.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration takes a formal action or makes an official announcement directing the deployment of National Guard troops to the listed city by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions. Qualifying actions include but are not limited to: - A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city. - An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city. - A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized). - An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city. Non-qualifying actions include: - Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement - Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city. - Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location. - A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-cities-will-trump-send-the-national-guard-to-by-september-30
| adrockisland | Yes | 192.31 |
| striderincity | Yes | 80.63 |
| MrGoy | Yes | 75 |
| hyoon1998 | Yes | 70 |
| Tarquinster | Yes | 55.82 |
| machtpolizei | Yes | 40 |
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