Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96%. Yes opened at 71.5% on 30 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 30 Jun 2026 to 1 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 80% on 2 Jul 2026 and the lowest 4% on 1 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 61 points down, to 14.5% on 26 Jul 2026. $1.93K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 1, 9:49 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 30 Jun 2026 – 1 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | 71.5% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 4.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 50 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-in-july-20260629200910760
| DeepMoneyValue | Yes | 14.58 |
| keynesian.multiplier | Yes | 10 |
| hesure | Yes | 10 |
| Noxious-Auditorium | Yes | 7.21 |
| 77sfds | Yes | 6.64 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
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