Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?

Resolved

No, settled May 15, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$187.8K

Resolved

Settled

May 15, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 15 May 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 65.5%. Yes opened at 48% on 5 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 5 May 2026 to 15 May 2026, the highest close was 75.5% on 14 May 2026 and the lowest 34.5% on 15 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 41 points down, to 34.5% on 15 May 2026. $187.77K traded over the market's life.

504 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 16, 10:36 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 5 May 2026 – 15 May 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
5 May 2026	48.0%
15 May 2026	34.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
aloha7712	Yes	2.08K
paultudor	Yes	1.3K
Next-Teacher	Yes	1K
Smart-bettor7	Yes	982.26

10 of 504 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Xi Jinping from May 14 to May 15, 2026 (https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/04/china/china-us-talks-iran-intl-hnk). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring Xi Jinping from May 14 through May 15, 2026 (Beijing Time). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. This market is explicitly about events featuring both Donald Trump and Xi Jinping from May 14 through May 15, 2026 (Beijing Time). All such events featuring both on these dates count. Speeches, events, or comments which feature one named individual but not the other, will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this visit is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.