Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 87.5%. Yes opened at 43% on 14 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 14 Jul 2026 to 16 Jul 2026, the highest close was 52.5% on 15 Jul 2026 and the lowest 12.4% on 16 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 12.4% on 16 Jul 2026. $3.79K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 16, 9:38 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 14 Jul 2026 – 16 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2026 | 43.0% |
| 16 Jul 2026 | 12.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| Faston | Yes | 50 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 23.76 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in a Defense and Innovation Summit on July 15, 2026 at 12 PM ET (https://politicspa.com/trump-to-headline-mccormicks-defense-and-innovation-summit-in-july/149365/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the Defense and Innovation Summit on July 15, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about the event titled "Defense and Innovation Summit" scheduled for 12 PM ET (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If this visit is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by July 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other markets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-the-defense-and-innovation-summit-20260713185716007
| Frail-Lender | Yes | 23 |
| thekingofthesouth | Yes | 15 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 15 |
| testinghighriskdontcopytrade | Yes | 14.71 |
| Loud-Container | Yes | 14.08 |
| twinedon | Yes | 13 |
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