Analytics
Resolved Yes on 28 Jun 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 61.5%. Yes opened at 38% on 26 Jun 2024. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 26 Jun 2024 to 28 Jun 2024, the highest close was 61.5% on 28 Jun 2024 and the lowest 38% on 26 Jun 2024. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 52.5% on 27 Jun 2024. $36.03K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 29, 6:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 26 Jun 2024 – 28 Jun 2024, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Jun 2024 | 38.0% |
| 28 Jun 2024 | 61.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Obama" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Obama" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to any Obama (e.g. "Obamacare" counts). The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-the-debate
| asi-356 | No | 0.08 |
| Muhtar | Yes | 0.02 |
| dancer-849 | Yes | 0.01 |
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