Analytics
Resolved Yes on 21 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 52.9%. Yes opened at 38.5% on 3 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 97% on 9 Jan 2026 and the low 30.9% on 20 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 41 points up, to 97% on 9 Jan 2026. $12.07K traded over the market's life.
39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 23, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 19 points · 3 Jan 2026 – 21 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2026 | 38.5% |
| 21 Jan 2026 | 52.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GUADANHAO | No | 1K |
| TENETENET | No | 500 |
| 0xtrador | No | 300.01 |
| halostryx | No | 254.03 |
| ttj01 | No | 250 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 232 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 218 |
| rNtykSGo0 | No | 160 |
| S888 | No | 122.4 |
| 5u57685 | No | 121.39 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 2, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market. A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-in-january
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