Analytics
Resolved Yes on 19 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 35.5%. Yes opened at 20% on 17 Jul 2024. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 17 Jul 2024 to 19 Jul 2024, the highest close was 35.5% on 19 Jul 2024 and the lowest 20% on 17 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 32% on 18 Jul 2024. $44.1K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 20, 4:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 17 Jul 2024 – 19 Jul 2024, chart shows 15%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2024 | 20.0% |
| 19 Jul 2024 | 35.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| cart6 | No | 670 |
| Jhgcfx | No | 105 |
| Djones7264 | Yes | 0.53 |
| fireponbabylon | Yes | 0.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Barron" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Barron" is part of the compound word which refers to the person Barron Trump. The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-his-rnc-speech
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